🎯 Oddsoddy Mission Control

2026-05-20 13:30:43 UTC — 16/30 bots active — Refresh

📝 Paper Trading (30 bots) — clean / forward-looking
Realized
$+632.06
all-history: $-2258.42
Unrealized
$-101.74
live mark-to-market
Combined
$+530.32
all-history: $-2360.16
Headline excludes $-2890.48 of bug-tagged wrong-universe trades — see CHANGES for the postmortems
🚀 Live Trading (0 bots · 0 eligible)
Realized
$+0.00
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$+0.00
No bots live yet — see Live Readiness tab
Deployed
$1435.01
Open Trades
61
Closed Trades
2034
Win Rate
44%
Active Bots
16/30
Max Drawdown
$499.30

Combined P&L

Cumulative Realized P&L — clean / forward-looking

excludes bug-tagged wrong-universe trades — matches headline
Overview
Summary Table
Sustainability
🚀 Live Readiness
🛡️ Risk Manager
⚡ Live Engine
🔄 Reconciler
Alerts 57
Edge Scorecard
AI Analysis
Improvement Reports
Sort by:
Whalehunter
Whale z-score cluster
active
7d
P&L
$-79.77
Win Rate
13%
Trades
23
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-79.77
Profit Fctr
0.10
Sharpe
-0.64
NOT VIABLE · low confidence
no trades yet
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5$-0.32
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?$-13.82
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?$-14.27
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?$3.14
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03?$-9.85
Weather
NWP ensemble >18% edge
active
7d
P&L
$-96.50
Win Rate
17%
Trades
6
Open
1
Unrealized
$+0.39
Combined
$-96.10
Profit Fctr
0.31
Sharpe
-0.55
TOO EARLY · low confidence
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 9$-30.42
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 9$-30.60
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between$-30.60
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or$-17.61
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 8$43.03
Resolution Momentum
YES ≥87%, 6–72h left
active
5d
P&L
$-23.28
Win Rate
37%
Trades
27
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-23.28
Profit Fctr
0.33
Sharpe
-0.37
NOT VIABLE · low confidence
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinpin$-0.24
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$-0.54
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May $-0.10
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 1$-0.28
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9$-0.03
FDV Specialist
FDV whale cluster <0.75
active
3d
P&L
$-68.33
Win Rate
17%
Trades
12
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-68.33
Profit Fctr
0.08
Sharpe
-1.09
NOT VIABLE · low confidence
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world $-13.67
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world $-8.33
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world $-8.46
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world $-8.11
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world $-8.42
Arb Scanner
YES+NO<0.97 / cross >8%
active
4d
P&L
$-90.67
Win Rate
42%
Trades
90
Open
3
Unrealized
$-2.97
Combined
$-93.63
Profit Fctr
0.91
Sharpe
-0.04
NOT VIABLE · medium confidence
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?$-20.40
Games Total: O/U 2.5$-20.40
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - $-20.40
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?$91.60
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5$-20.40
Sports Model
ELO vs market >8%
active
3d
P&L
$615.10
Win Rate
36%
Trades
262
Open
10
Unrealized
$-137.37
Combined
$+477.73
Profit Fctr
1.15
Sharpe
+0.04
MARGINAL · high confidence
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia$57.16
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner$-12.83
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Champi$-23.80
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (B$-11.49
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Cham$24.60
News Trader
RSS keyword match >70%
inactive
P&L
$-192.96
Win Rate
42%
Trades
260
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-192.96
Profit Fctr
0.73
Sharpe
-0.07
NOT VIABLE · high confidence
🧠 LLM SPEND (Gemini Flash) 2413 calls · 25743.7k tokens
TOTAL
$2.3064
LAST 24H
$0.0000
$/SIGNAL
$0.0002
P&L − COST
$-195.27
Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-05-16?$-25.42
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to $-3.52
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?$-14.10
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5$-3.33
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?$-5.08
News Safe
News + BB/RSI confirm + whale-veto
inactive
P&L
$-208.16
Win Rate
43%
Trades
180
Open
5
Unrealized
$-73.14
Combined
$-281.30
Profit Fctr
0.64
Sharpe
-0.11
NOT VIABLE · high confidence
🧠 LLM SPEND (Gemini Flash) 5767 calls · 66379.4k tokens
TOTAL
$5.8587
LAST 24H
$0.0000
$/SIGNAL
$0.0002
P&L − COST
$-214.02
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: $-14.23
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5$-1.46
Will Pakistan win?$-5.30
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Fea$-10.74
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Verete$-25.28
Equity News
Alpaca SIP news + LLM → Polymarket equity markets
inactive
P&L
$-121.47
Win Rate
38%
Trades
104
Open
2
Unrealized
$+42.21
Combined
$-79.26
Profit Fctr
0.56
Sharpe
-0.17
NOT VIABLE · high confidence
🧠 LLM SPEND (Gemini Flash) 1287 calls · 11040.7k tokens
TOTAL
$0.8823
LAST 24H
$0.0000
$/SIGNAL
$0.0006
P&L − COST
$-122.35
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 17?$0.47
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-$0.65
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?$0.62
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski $-0.41
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?$-6.25
Option Flow
Alpaca OPRA unusual call/put flow + LLM → Polymarket equity
inactive
P&L
$-177.62
Win Rate
46%
Trades
123
Open
4
Unrealized
$-12.82
Combined
$-190.44
Profit Fctr
0.62
Sharpe
-0.14
NOT VIABLE · high confidence
🧠 LLM SPEND (Gemini Flash) 747 calls · 8222.8k tokens
TOTAL
$0.6596
LAST 24H
$0.0000
$/SIGNAL
$0.0006
P&L − COST
$-178.28
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-$0.60
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 pa$-7.27
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 17?$-2.84
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater t$7.47
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to $-4.37
Earnings Arb
Earnings calendar TIME GATE + Alpaca news + LLM → Polymarket equity
failed
P&L
$-140.51
Win Rate
12%
Trades
8
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-140.51
Profit Fctr
0.02
Sharpe
-1.26
TOO EARLY · low confidence
🧠 LLM SPEND (Gemini Flash) 126 calls · 107.6k tokens
TOTAL
$0.0084
LAST 24H
$0.0000
$/SIGNAL
$0.0008
P&L − COST
$-140.52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May $2.47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$-8.79
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May $-40.77
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May $-31.21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$-13.36
Confluence Alpha
Cross-bot ≥2-source agreement on (market, direction) → bigger sizing
failed
P&L
$-30.72
Win Rate
33%
Trades
15
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-30.72
Profit Fctr
0.59
Sharpe
-0.18
NOT VIABLE · low confidence
🧠 LLM SPEND (Gemini Flash) 0 calls · 0.0k tokens
TOTAL
$0.0000
LAST 24H
$0.0000
$/SIGNAL
$0.0000
P&L − COST
$-30.72
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs.$-7.24
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-$-6.16
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score$-0.53
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at mark$1.57
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on May 13?$33.78
Stock Master
News+LLM + 6-gate stack: stock SIP / PM TA / whale-veto / spread / LMD / exhaustion
active
4d
P&L
$0.00
Win Rate
Trades
0
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$+0.00
Profit Fctr
Sharpe
TOO EARLY · low confidence
🧠 LLM SPEND (Gemini Flash) 1888 calls · 2866.4k tokens
TOTAL
$0.2399
LAST 24H
$0.1714
$/SIGNAL
$0.0003
P&L − COST
$-0.24
no trades yet
LP Market Maker
Virtual MM at mid±1%
active
19d
P&L
$0.00
Win Rate
Trades
0
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$+0.00
Profit Fctr
Sharpe
TOO EARLY · low confidence
no trades yet
Combo Alpha
Whale z≥2.5 + YES 82–97% <72h + Kalshi + wallets
active
2d
P&L
$-115.41
Win Rate
88%
Trades
229
Open
14
Unrealized
$-16.95
Combined
$-132.36
Profit Fctr
0.68
Sharpe
-0.09
NOT VIABLE · high confidence
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - $1.45
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Champion$0.64
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS As$1.45
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (B$2.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?$-10.91
Wallet Follower
Follow top wallets from whalehunter (WR≥50%)
active
13d
P&L
$0.00
Win Rate
Trades
0
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$+0.00
Profit Fctr
Sharpe
TOO EARLY · low confidence
no trades yet
News2Combo
LLM news + whale + momentum + wallets + Kalshi (2+ confirms)
active
13d
P&L
$0.66
Win Rate
100%
Trades
1
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$+0.66
Profit Fctr
Sharpe
TOO EARLY · low confidence
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?$0.66
Whalehunter Elite
Whalehunter signal AND ≥1 cluster member is in top-5K elite (poly_data)
active
13d
P&L
$0.00
Win Rate
Trades
0
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$+0.00
Profit Fctr
Sharpe
TOO EARLY · low confidence
no trades yet
First Mover
Elite wallet among first 10 traders on a market < 6h old
failed
P&L
$-78.52
Win Rate
32%
Trades
34
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-78.52
Profit Fctr
0.62
Sharpe
-0.15
NOT VIABLE · medium confidence
Will Mark Geddes finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 $-20.22
Will Francisco Bide finish in the Top 20 at the 20$-20.22
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?$-3.42
Will Solana reach $100 May 11-17?$2.38
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 11?$-8.00
Drift Bot
Pre-resolution YES drift, 72-168h to close, entry 0.85+ — drift_backtest +10.6% avg
active
5d
P&L
$-167.87
Win Rate
51%
Trades
139
Open
2
Unrealized
$+2.09
Combined
$-165.78
Profit Fctr
0.38
Sharpe
-0.26
NOT VIABLE · high confidence
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Al$-15.54
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels$0.84
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres$1.28
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies$2.34
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs$1.28
Smart Flow
Elite-wallet net USD flow vs price divergence (≥$5k, ≥2 elites)
inactive
P&L
$-66.31
Win Rate
41%
Trades
37
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-66.31
Profit Fctr
0.72
Sharpe
-0.13
NOT VIABLE · medium confidence
Paris: Madison Keys vs Yulia Starodubtseva$-25.43
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Dani$-18.48
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros$2.97
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays$-12.36
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays$-20.96
BB Squeeze
BB(20, 2σ) lower-band touch — combinator #1: median +10.2% Sharpe 1.24 across 98 markets
inactive
P&L
$-272.11
Win Rate
32%
Trades
57
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-272.11
Profit Fctr
0.52
Sharpe
-0.24
NOT VIABLE · medium confidence
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?$-2.90
Will Cadillac achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 $3.92
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?$-13.68
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?$-2.00
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026?$-14.25
BB Squeeze Tight
BB(25, 1.5σ, h=12) — round-4 highest mean Sharpe (1.86), A/B vs bb_squeeze
inactive
P&L
$-308.16
Win Rate
30%
Trades
111
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-308.16
Profit Fctr
0.67
Sharpe
-0.13
NOT VIABLE · high confidence
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jin$-16.75
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B$59.11
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Ji$-36.77
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events $30.78
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinpin$8.95
Fundamental Arb
Polymarket equity/crypto vs Alpaca SIP options-IV / realized-vol Black-Scholes fair value
active
9d
P&L
$105.20
Win Rate
62%
Trades
58
Open
5
Unrealized
$+6.09
Combined
$+111.29
Profit Fctr
1.26
Sharpe
+0.10
MARGINAL · medium confidence
Will Solana reach $110 in May?$12.83
Will Solana reach $120 May 11-17?$8.68
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-$-17.86
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $$-13.61
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $22$-3.91
Precipitation Arb
Polymarket monthly precipitation vs OpenMeteo Archive (past month deterministic) + climatology forecast
active
13d
P&L
$0.00
Win Rate
Trades
0
Open
15
Unrealized
$+90.73
Combined
$+90.73
Profit Fctr
Sharpe
TOO EARLY · low confidence
no trades yet
Grid LP
Laddered buy/sell on long-dated (≥7d) mid-priced (0.30-0.70) high-volume markets — 5 ladders ±13%, 10% TP each
inactive
P&L
$-241.30
Win Rate
26%
Trades
142
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-241.30
Profit Fctr
0.13
Sharpe
-0.70
NOT VIABLE · high confidence
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29?$-0.94
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvia$-0.67
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29?$-0.07
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presi$-2.94
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presi$-3.09
Smart Dip
ATR-dip (1.5×ATR(14) from 48h max) AND elite-wallet BUY YES in last 4h — premium-conviction subset of dip_buyer_atr
inactive
P&L
$-371.29
Win Rate
25%
Trades
92
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-371.29
Profit Fctr
0.57
Sharpe
-0.23
NOT VIABLE · medium confidence
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the Jun$-4.59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?$-23.70
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?$-15.15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?$-15.15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?$-15.15
BTC Scalper
BTC 5min momentum at 240s
inactive
P&L
$11.25
Win Rate
50%
Trades
10
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$+11.25
Profit Fctr
1.22
Sharpe
+0.09
MARGINAL · low confidence
Crypto Scalper
ETH/SOL/DOGE/XRP 5min momentum at 240s
inactive
P&L
$-139.66
Win Rate
36%
Trades
14
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$-139.66
Profit Fctr
0.14
Sharpe
-0.85
NOT VIABLE · low confidence
Whale Tracker
Polymarket war/geopolitics insider+pro wallet tracking; Go HFT poller via Redis stream; paper-copy w/ tier-aware execution
active
1h 56m
P&L
$0.00
Win Rate
Trades
0
Open
0
Unrealized
$+0.00
Combined
$+0.00
Profit Fctr
Sharpe
TOO EARLY · low confidence
no trades yet

Click any column header to sort. Click again to reverse.

Strategy Status Open Closed Win Rate Realized P&L Active P&L Unrealized Combined Deployed Uptime
Whalehunter active 0 23 13% $-79.77 $+0.00 $+0.00 $-79.77 $0.00 7d
Weather active 1 6 17% $-96.50 $+43.03 $+0.39 $-96.10 $30.60 7d
Resolution Momentum active 0 27 37% $-23.28 $-0.36 $+0.00 $-23.28 $0.00 5d
FDV Specialist active 0 12 17% $-68.33 $-68.33 $+0.00 $-68.33 $0.00 3d
Arb Scanner active 3 90 42% $-90.67 $+221.49 $-2.97 $-93.63 $61.20 4d
Sports Model active 10 262 36% $615.10 $+615.40 $-137.37 $+477.73 $232.71 3d
News Trader inactive 0 260 42% $-192.96 $+287.09 $+0.00 $-192.96 $0.00
News Safe inactive 5 180 43% $-208.16 $+68.11 $-73.14 $-281.30 $127.50
Equity News inactive 2 104 38% $-121.47 $-61.26 $+42.21 $-79.26 $51.00
Option Flow inactive 4 123 46% $-177.62 $-94.94 $-12.82 $-190.44 $102.00
Earnings Arb failed 0 8 12% $-140.51 $-6.32 $+0.00 $-140.51 $0.00
Confluence Alpha failed 0 15 33% $-30.72 $+24.27 $+0.00 $-30.72 $0.00
Stock Master active 0 0 $0.00 $+0.00 $+0.00 $+0.00 $0.00 4d
LP Market Maker active 0 0 $0.00 $+0.00 $+0.00 $+0.00 $0.00 19d
Combo Alpha active 14 229 88% $-115.41 $-115.41 $-16.95 $-132.36 $146.25 2d
Wallet Follower active 0 0 $0.00 $+0.00 $+0.00 $+0.00 $0.00 13d
News2Combo active 0 1 100% $0.66 $+0.66 $+0.00 $+0.66 $0.00 13d
Whalehunter Elite active 0 0 $0.00 $+0.00 $+0.00 $+0.00 $0.00 13d
First Mover failed 0 34 32% $-78.52 $-78.52 $+0.00 $-78.52 $0.00
Drift Bot active 2 139 51% $-167.87 $-119.73 $+2.09 $-165.78 $51.00 5d
Smart Flow inactive 0 37 41% $-66.31 $-66.31 $+0.00 $-66.31 $0.00
BB Squeeze inactive 0 57 32% $-272.11 $+21.40 $+0.00 $-272.11 $0.00
BB Squeeze Tight inactive 0 111 30% $-308.16 $+187.99 $+0.00 $-308.16 $0.00
Fundamental Arb active 5 58 62% $105.20 $+105.20 $+6.09 $+111.29 $254.00 9d
Precipitation Arb active 15 0 $0.00 $+0.00 $+90.73 $+90.73 $378.75 13d
Grid LP inactive 0 142 26% $-241.30 $-146.30 $+0.00 $-241.30 $0.00
Smart Dip inactive 0 92 25% $-371.29 $-56.67 $+0.00 $-371.29 $0.00
BTC Scalper inactive 0 10 50% $11.25 $+11.25 $+0.00 $+11.25 $0.00
Crypto Scalper inactive 0 14 36% $-139.66 $-139.66 $+0.00 $-139.66 $0.00
Whale Tracker active 0 0 $0.00 $+0.00 $+0.00 $+0.00 $0.00 1h 56m
Quick sorts: Most profitable (active) · Bleeding worst · Best combined · Most trades · Highest WR

Long-run viability: profit factor (sum-wins / sum-losses), per-trade Sharpe (mean / stdev), Calmar (annualised return / max drawdown), recovery factor (P&L per $ of drawdown), and sample-size confidence. ROBUST = ≥100 trades + PF≥2.0 + Sharpe≥0.20. VIABLE = PF≥1.3. NOT VIABLE = PF<1.0 (loses on average).

Strategy Closed Days Trd/Day Expectancy Avg Win Avg Loss Profit Factor Sharpe Calmar Recovery Confidence Verdict
Whalehunter 23 8.5d 2.7 $-3.47 $3.03 $4.44 0.10 -0.64 low NOT VIABLE
Weather 6 8.6d 0.7 $-16.08 $43.03 $27.91 0.31 -0.55 low TOO EARLY
Resolution Momentum 27 20.4d 1.3 $-0.86 $1.15 $2.05 0.33 -0.37 -353.46 -19.73× low NOT VIABLE
FDV Specialist 12 8.3d 1.4 $-5.69 $2.85 $7.40 0.08 -1.09 -44.10 -1.00× low NOT VIABLE
Arb Scanner 90 16.1d 5.6 $-1.01 $25.47 $20.36 0.91 -0.04 -11.34 -0.50× medium NOT VIABLE
Sports Model 262 $+2.35 $50.20 $24.43 1.15 +0.04 +1.23× high MARGINAL
News Trader 260 20.3d 12.8 $-0.74 $4.91 $4.82 0.73 -0.07 -20.84 -1.16× high NOT VIABLE
News Safe 180 11.1d 16.3 $-1.16 $4.84 $5.64 0.64 -0.11 -34.32 -1.04× high NOT VIABLE
Equity News 104 10.3d 10.1 $-1.17 $3.99 $4.26 0.56 -0.17 -41.16 -1.17× high NOT VIABLE
Option Flow 123 10.4d 11.9 $-1.44 $5.27 $7.06 0.62 -0.14 -47.07 -1.34× high NOT VIABLE
Earnings Arb 8 3.6d 2.2 $-17.56 $2.47 $20.43 0.02 -1.26 -1630.98 -15.99× low TOO EARLY
Confluence Alpha 15 8.6d 1.7 $-2.05 $8.91 $7.53 0.59 -0.18 -93.70 -2.21× low NOT VIABLE
Stock Master 0 $+0.00 $0.00 $0.00 low TOO EARLY
LP Market Maker 0 $+0.00 $0.00 $0.00 low TOO EARLY
Combo Alpha 229 26.7d 8.6 $-0.50 $1.21 $12.78 0.68 -0.09 -8.92 -0.65× high NOT VIABLE
Wallet Follower 0 $+0.00 $0.00 $0.00 low TOO EARLY
News2Combo 1 9.5d 0.1 $+0.66 $0.66 $0.00 low TOO EARLY
Whalehunter Elite 0 $+0.00 $0.00 $0.00 low TOO EARLY
First Mover 34 8.0d 4.2 $-2.31 $11.84 $9.08 0.62 -0.15 -25.72 -0.57× medium NOT VIABLE
Drift Bot 139 15.1d 9.2 $-1.21 $1.42 $3.95 0.38 -0.26 -26.78 -1.11× high NOT VIABLE
Smart Flow 37 11.0d 3.4 $-1.79 $11.54 $10.88 0.72 -0.13 -15.40 -0.46× medium NOT VIABLE
BB Squeeze 57 4.3d 13.3 $-4.77 $16.69 $14.68 0.52 -0.24 -132.60 -1.56× medium NOT VIABLE
BB Squeeze Tight 111 8.7d 12.8 $-2.78 $19.24 $12.09 0.67 -0.13 -58.13 -1.38× high NOT VIABLE
Fundamental Arb 58 13.0d 4.5 $+1.81 $14.19 $18.43 1.26 +0.10 +18.48 +0.66× medium MARGINAL
Precipitation Arb 0 $+0.00 $0.00 $0.00 low TOO EARLY
Grid LP 142 10.6d 13.3 $-1.70 $0.98 $2.64 0.13 -0.70 -53.44 -1.56× high NOT VIABLE
Smart Dip 92 8.7d 10.5 $-4.04 $20.99 $12.38 0.57 -0.23 -133.71 -3.20× medium NOT VIABLE
BTC Scalper 10 0.1d 91.7 $+1.13 $12.35 $10.10 1.22 +0.09 +806.72 +0.24× low MARGINAL
Crypto Scalper 14 2.1d 6.7 $-9.98 $4.39 $17.96 0.14 -0.85 -174.37 -1.00× low NOT VIABLE
Whale Tracker 0 $+0.00 $0.00 $0.00 low TOO EARLY
Quick sorts: By Profit Factor · By Sharpe · By Confidence · By Sample Size

Alerts (57)

FDV Specialist: max drawdown $68.33
FDV Specialist: drawdown $68.33
Arb Scanner: max drawdown $180.86
Arb Scanner: drawdown $180.86
Sports Model: max drawdown $499.30
Sports Model: drawdown $499.30
News Trader: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: LLM-on-RSS signal is random, 246 trades cannot escape coin-flip (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
News Trader: max drawdown $166.67
News Trader: drawdown $166.67
News Safe: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: quant gates cannot repair random LLM matches; 18% WR post-fix (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
News Safe: max drawdown $200.25
News Safe: drawdown $200.25
Equity News: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: LLM ignores ticker tag, matches unrelated markets (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
Equity News: max drawdown $104.26
Equity News: drawdown $104.26
Option Flow: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: options flow does not predict resolution even with ticker match (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
Option Flow: max drawdown $132.91
Option Flow: drawdown $132.91
Earnings Arb: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: same LLM-on-news weakness; silent post-fix anyway (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
Earnings Arb: drawdown $8.79
Confluence Alpha: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: signal sources (equity_news/option_flow/earnings_arb) all killed (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
Confluence Alpha: drawdown $13.93
Stock Master: no trades yet — bot may not be finding signals
LP Market Maker: no trades yet — bot may not be finding signals
Combo Alpha: max drawdown $177.20
Combo Alpha: drawdown $177.20
Wallet Follower: no trades yet — bot may not be finding signals
Whalehunter Elite: no trades yet — bot may not be finding signals
First Mover: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: chases single BTC-gambler wallet; no consensus gate (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
First Mover: max drawdown $138.89
First Mover: drawdown $138.89
Drift Bot: max drawdown $151.76
Drift Bot: drawdown $151.76
Smart Flow: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: flow-vs-price-flat thesis inverted; markets collapse in 10min (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
Smart Flow: max drawdown $143.23
Smart Flow: drawdown $143.23
BB Squeeze: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: same falling-knife problem as smart_dip (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
BB Squeeze: max drawdown $174.54
BB Squeeze: drawdown $174.54
BB Squeeze Tight: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: tighter bands amplify the broken bb_squeeze signal (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
BB Squeeze Tight: max drawdown $222.66
BB Squeeze Tight: drawdown $222.66
Fundamental Arb: max drawdown $159.88
Fundamental Arb: drawdown $159.88
Grid LP: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: TP target cannot clear fees, no chop universe (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
Grid LP: max drawdown $154.81
Grid LP: drawdown $154.81
Smart Dip: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: no mean-reversion edge in Polymarket universe (see KILLED.md) (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
Smart Dip: max drawdown $116.04
Smart Dip: drawdown $116.04
BTC Scalper bot is inactive — check systemd
BTC Scalper: max drawdown $46.66
BTC Scalper: drawdown $46.66
Crypto Scalper: halted by risk_manager — KILLED: 5min crypto momentum does not predict Polymarket Up/Down (cooloff until 2027-05-17 00:00 UTC)
Crypto Scalper: max drawdown $139.66
Crypto Scalper: drawdown $139.66
Whale Tracker: no trades yet — bot may not be finding signals

🌐 Global Infrastructure

❌ CLOB API credentials (POLY_API_KEY/SECRET/PASSPHRASE)
❌ Polygon wallet (POLY_PRIVATE_KEY + POLY_FUNDER)
❌ Geo proxy (US-fenced — needs non-US egress)
❌ USDC.e on Polygon — fund via Binance/Coinbase bridge
❌ py-clob-client integration (per-bot order plumbing)
❌ Reconciliation loop — match CLOB state to local DB

Six gates per bot. All six must be ✅ before the live toggle unlocks. The flag is informational only today — bots keep paper-trading even when flagged live, until per-bot order plumbing is built.

StrategyVerdict EdgeSamples CLOBWalletOrdersAlloc Status
Sports Model MARGINAL MARGINAL high (262 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $233 blocked
Fundamental Arb MARGINAL MARGINAL medium (58 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $254 blocked
BTC Scalper MARGINAL MARGINAL low (10 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Weather TOO EARLY TOO EARLY low (6 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $31 blocked
Earnings Arb TOO EARLY TOO EARLY low (8 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Stock Master TOO EARLY TOO EARLY low (0 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
LP Market Maker TOO EARLY TOO EARLY low (0 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Wallet Follower TOO EARLY TOO EARLY low (0 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
News2Combo TOO EARLY TOO EARLY low (1 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Whalehunter Elite TOO EARLY TOO EARLY low (0 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Precipitation Arb TOO EARLY TOO EARLY low (0 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $379 blocked
Whale Tracker TOO EARLY TOO EARLY low (0 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Whalehunter NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE low (23 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Resolution Momentum NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE low (27 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
FDV Specialist NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE low (12 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Arb Scanner NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE medium (90 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $61 blocked
News Trader NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE high (260 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
News Safe NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE high (180 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $128 blocked
Equity News NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE high (104 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $51 blocked
Option Flow NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE high (123 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $102 blocked
Confluence Alpha NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE low (15 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Combo Alpha NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE high (229 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $146 blocked
First Mover NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE medium (34 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Drift Bot NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE high (139 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $51 blocked
Smart Flow NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE medium (37 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
BB Squeeze NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE medium (57 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
BB Squeeze Tight NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE high (111 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Grid LP NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE high (142 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Smart Dip NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE medium (92 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked
Crypto Scalper NOT VIABLE NOT VIABLE low (14 trades) missing missing py-clob-client integration pending $0 blocked

🛡️ Fleet status

Fleet OK — no fleet-wide halt active

⏸️ Active per-bot halts (14)

combo_alpha — rolling_7d $-129.05 (until 11:37)
smart_dip — KILLED: no mean-reversion edge in Polymarket universe (see KILLED.md) (until 00:00)
bb_squeeze — KILLED: same falling-knife problem as smart_dip (until 00:00)
bb_squeeze_tight — KILLED: tighter bands amplify the broken bb_squeeze signal (until 00:00)
grid_lp — KILLED: TP target cannot clear fees, no chop universe (until 00:00)
crypto_scalper — KILLED: 5min crypto momentum does not predict Polymarket Up/Down (until 00:00)
equity_news — KILLED: LLM ignores ticker tag, matches unrelated markets (until 00:00)
option_flow — KILLED: options flow does not predict resolution even with ticker match (until 00:00)
news_trader — KILLED: LLM-on-RSS signal is random, 246 trades cannot escape coin-flip (until 00:00)
news_safe — KILLED: quant gates cannot repair random LLM matches; 18% WR post-fix (until 00:00)

Recent risk-manager actions (last 30)

TimeBotActionDetails
16:40:40news_traderrolling_7d_halt7d_pnl=$-155.61
16:35:39news_traderauto_resumecooloff expired
16:35:39news_traderauto_resumefleet halt cleared
15:19:42smart_flowrolling_7d_halt7d_pnl=$-100.16
15:14:41smart_flowauto_resumecooloff expired
15:14:41smart_flowauto_resumefleet halt cleared
14:44:22grid_lprolling_7d_halt7d_pnl=$-129.32
14:39:21grid_lpauto_resumecooloff expired
14:39:20grid_lpauto_resumefleet halt cleared
14:08:54option_flowauto_resumecooloff expired
14:08:54option_flowauto_resumefleet halt cleared
12:22:48first_moverauto_resumecooloff expired
11:37:20combo_alpharolling_7d_halt7d_pnl=$-129.05
10:31:53news_safedaily_killtoday_pnl=$-59.07 floor=5%
17:41:25bb_squeezepermanent_killKILLED: same falling-knife problem as smart_dip
17:41:25bb_squeeze_tightpermanent_killKILLED: tighter bands amplify the broken bb_squeeze signal
17:41:25confluence_alphapermanent_killKILLED: signal sources (equity_news/option_flow/earnings_arb) all killed
17:41:25crypto_scalperpermanent_killKILLED: 5min crypto momentum does not predict Polymarket Up/Down
17:41:25earnings_arbpermanent_killKILLED: same LLM-on-news weakness; silent post-fix anyway
17:41:25equity_newspermanent_killKILLED: LLM ignores ticker tag, matches unrelated markets
17:41:25first_moverpermanent_killKILLED: chases single BTC-gambler wallet; no consensus gate
17:41:25grid_lppermanent_killrolling_7d $-129.32
17:41:25news_safepermanent_killdaily_loss $-59.07
17:41:25news_traderpermanent_killrolling_7d $-155.61
17:41:25option_flowpermanent_killKILLED: options flow does not predict resolution even with ticker match
17:41:25smart_dippermanent_killKILLED: no mean-reversion edge in Polymarket universe (see KILLED.md)
17:41:25smart_flowpermanent_killrolling_7d $-100.16
16:34:52news_traderrolling_7d_halt7d_pnl=$-149.95
16:29:51news_traderauto_resumecooloff expired
16:24:50fdv_specialistauto_resumecooloff expired

Risk Manager runs every 5min. Rules: daily_loss_kill (>5% bankroll), fleet_drawdown (>3% combined), low_wr_kill (>5 closes, <35% WR, losing in last 48h), rolling_7d_halt (>10% bankroll over 7 days).

⚡ Engine state

🟢 DRY_RUN — orders simulated, no real money
Max order: $100 · Daily cap: $1000
Creds present: 3\/5
Runtime: dry_run

📊 Today's activity

No orders today

Recent orders (last 50)

TimeBotModeMarketSideOutcomeSize $PriceStatusError
13:48:33test_botdry_run0xabc123def456…BUYYES$25.000.420DRY_RUN
14:51:03news_traderdry_run0xabc123def456…BUYYES$25.000.420DRY_RUN

Engine integration: a bot opts into live by flipping its mode toggle to "live" in mode_registry. The bot continues to write its paper-DB position normally; the live engine shim ALSO sends an order (real or DRY_RUN). This way paper tracking stays authoritative for analytics; live is purely additive. To go fully live: set POLY_LIVE_GO=1 + 5 creds.

🔄 Reconciler

Daemon: active
Polls every 15 minutes. In DRY_RUN, all paper positions show as "paper-only" (CLOB has no real positions). When live, drift events are written below as soon as a partial fill or out-of-band close is detected.

Recent drift events (last 50)

No drift events recorded yet — running in DRY_RUN or no live positions to reconcile.

Per RISK_MANAGEMENT.md: a YES bet at price p needs WR > p to be EV+. The actionable metric is edge per bet = WR − avg_entry_price. PROFITABLE = edge ≥ 5pp. MARGINAL = edge −2 to 5pp. BLEEDING = edge < −2pp (EV negative — investigate or kill).

Strategy Closed Avg Entry Live WR Edge per Bet Realized P&L Avg P&L Verdict
Whalehunter 23 51% 13% -38.4pp $-79.77 $-3.47 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Weather 6 44% 17% -27.8pp $-96.50 $-16.08 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Resolution Momentum 27 85% 37% -47.9pp $-23.28 $-0.86 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
FDV Specialist 12 20% 17% -2.9pp $-68.33 $-5.69 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Arb Scanner 90 44% 42% -1.7pp $-90.67 $-1.01 MARGINAL near break-even — monitor
Sports Model 262 35% 36% +0.5pp $+615.10 $+2.35 MARGINAL near break-even — monitor
News Trader 260 55% 42% -12.9pp $-192.96 $-0.74 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
News Safe 180 56% 43% -13.6pp $-208.16 $-1.16 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Equity News 104 61% 38% -23.1pp $-121.47 $-1.17 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Option Flow 123 57% 46% -11.0pp $-177.62 $-1.44 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Earnings Arb 8 43% 12% -30.9pp $-140.51 $-17.56 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Confluence Alpha 15 62% 33% -28.5pp $-30.72 $-2.05 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Stock Master 0 0% $+0.00 $+0.00 INSUFFICIENT need ≥3 closes (have 0)
LP Market Maker 0 0% $+0.00 $+0.00 INSUFFICIENT need ≥3 closes (have 0)
Combo Alpha 229 86% 88% +1.3pp $-115.41 $-0.50 MARGINAL near break-even — monitor
Wallet Follower 0 0% $+0.00 $+0.00 INSUFFICIENT need ≥3 closes (have 0)
News2Combo 1 91% 100% $+0.66 $+0.66 INSUFFICIENT need ≥3 closes (have 1)
Whalehunter Elite 0 0% $+0.00 $+0.00 INSUFFICIENT need ≥3 closes (have 0)
First Mover 34 30% 32% +2.1pp $-78.52 $-2.31 MARGINAL near break-even — monitor
Drift Bot 139 93% 51% -42.0pp $-167.87 $-1.21 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Smart Flow 37 50% 41% -9.3pp $-66.31 $-1.79 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
BB Squeeze 57 47% 32% -15.2pp $-272.11 $-4.77 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
BB Squeeze Tight 111 44% 30% -14.0pp $-308.16 $-2.78 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Fundamental Arb 58 48% 62% +13.6pp $+105.20 $+1.81 PROFITABLE EV+ — keep running
Precipitation Arb 0 0% $+0.00 $+0.00 INSUFFICIENT need ≥3 closes (have 0)
Grid LP 142 43% 26% -17.2pp $-241.30 $-1.70 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Smart Dip 92 31% 25% -5.9pp $-371.29 $-4.04 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
BTC Scalper 10 38% 50% +12.5pp $+11.25 $+1.13 PROFITABLE EV+ — keep running
Crypto Scalper 14 45% 36% -9.2pp $-139.66 $-9.98 BLEEDING EV− — investigate or kill
Whale Tracker 0 0% $+0.00 $+0.00 INSUFFICIENT need ≥3 closes (have 0)

Gemini reads all strategy performance data and gives concrete suggestions on what's working, what needs tuning, and where to focus effort.

Daily automated loop: run backtests, compare to baseline, Gemini analyzes P&L and suggests improvements. Reports generated at 06:00 UTC daily.

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