News event price-lag strategy — experimental
2026-05-20 14:58:50 UTC — refreshes every 30s
| Headline | Matched Market | Signal | Dir | Confidence | Status | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glitz and Boycotts at Eurovision | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | llm:Headline mentions Eurovision, which increases the likelihood of any country winn | h2r=8h | YES |
|
TRADED | May 15 16:11 |
| Glitz and Boycotts at Eurovision | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | llm:Headline mentions Eurovision, which increases the likelihood of any country winn | YES |
|
TRADED | May 15 16:11 |
| Live Updates: Trump Says He and Xi Talked Extensively About Taiwan | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 | llm:Headline mentions Trump and Xi talked extensively about Taiwan which could move | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 15:35 |
| Live Updates: Trump Says He and Xi Talked Extensively About Taiwan | Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 | llm:Headline mentions Trump and Xi talked extensively about Taiwan which could move | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 15:35 |
| Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals confirmed | Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? | llm:The headline "Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals confirm | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 15:24 |
| Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals confirmed | Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? | llm:The headline "Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals confirm | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 15:24 |
| Trump told Xi ‘I don't talk about’ whether U.S. would defend Taiwan from China | Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-05-16? | llm:Headline indicates a weaker US stance on Taiwan defense, making a win for FK Dyn | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 13:12 |
| Trump told Xi ‘I don't talk about’ whether U.S. would defend Taiwan from China | Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-05-16? | llm:Headline indicates a weaker US stance on Taiwan defense, making a win for FK Dyn | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 13:12 |
| Trump Announces Boeing Jet Order From China. Beijing Stays Silent. | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? | llm:The headline 'Trump Announces Boeing Jet Order From China' suggests increased ec | YES |
|
TRADED | May 15 12:48 |
| Trump Announces Boeing Jet Order From China. Beijing Stays Silent. | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? | llm:The headline 'Trump Announces Boeing Jet Order From China' suggests increased ec | YES |
|
TRADED | May 15 12:48 |
| Trump says he will soon make decision about sanctions on Chinese companies buying Iranian oil | Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? | llm:Trump says he will soon make decision about sanctions on Chinese companies buyin | YES |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:34 |
| Trump says he will soon make decision about sanctions on Chinese companies buying Iranian oil | Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? | llm:Trump says he will soon make decision about sanctions on Chinese companies buyin | YES |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:34 |
| Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals announced | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 20 | llm:The headline says Trump and Xi concluded talks with no deals, meaning Boeing may | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:32 |
| Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals announced | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 20 | llm:The headline says Trump and Xi concluded talks with no deals, meaning Boeing may | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:32 |
| Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals announced | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 20 | llm:The headline says Trump and Xi concluded talks with no deals, meaning Boeing may | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:32 |
| Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals announced | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 20 | llm:The headline says Trump and Xi concluded talks with no deals, meaning Boeing may | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:32 |
| Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals announced | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 20 | llm:The headline says Trump and Xi concluded talks with no deals, meaning Boeing may | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:32 |
| Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals announced | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 20 | llm:The headline says Trump and Xi concluded talks with no deals, meaning Boeing may | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:32 |
| Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals announced | Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? | llm:The headline states talks concluded with no deals, reducing the likelihood of a | NO |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:30 |
| Bill Ackman says he built Microsoft position in first quarter | LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | llm:Bill Ackman building a Microsoft position increases the chance of Microsoft succ | YES |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:08 |
| Bill Ackman says he built Microsoft position in first quarter | LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | llm:Bill Ackman building a Microsoft position increases the chance of Microsoft succ | YES |
|
TRADED | May 15 11:08 |
| Trump Touts ‘Fantastic Trade Deals’ With China, but Details Are Scarce | Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? | llm:Trump talking about trade deals with China increases the chance of a Boeing purc | YES |
|
TRADED | May 15 09:56 |
| Trump Touts ‘Fantastic Trade Deals’ With China, but Details Are Scarce | Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? | llm:Trump talking about trade deals with China increases the chance of a Boeing purc | YES |
|
TRADED | May 15 09:56 |
| The Body Language of the Trump-Xi Summit Spoke Volumes | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | llm:The headline provides direct evidence that the Trump-Xi summit happened, increas | YES |
|
TRADED | May 14 20:02 |
| The Body Language of the Trump-Xi Summit Spoke Volumes | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | llm:The headline provides direct evidence that the Trump-Xi summit happened, increas | YES |
|
TRADED | May 14 20:02 |
| Live Updates: China’s Xi Warns Trump on Taiwan at Beijing Summit | Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Ji | llm:The headline indicates a meeting between Trump and Xi, increasing the likelihood | YES |
|
TRADED | May 14 09:24 |
| Live Updates: China’s Xi Warns Trump on Taiwan at Beijing Summit | Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Ji | llm:The headline indicates a meeting between Trump and Xi, increasing the likelihood | YES |
|
TRADED | May 14 09:24 |
| Live Updates: China’s Xi Warns Trump on Taiwan at Beijing Summit | Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jin | llm:Headline mentions Xi and Trump meeting and Taiwan, which increases the likelihoo | YES |
|
TRADED | May 14 09:16 |
| Live Updates: China’s Xi Warns Trump on Taiwan at Beijing Summit | Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jin | llm:Headline mentions Xi and Trump meeting and Taiwan, which increases the likelihoo | YES |
|
TRADED | May 14 09:16 |
| Trump-Xi summit revives China tech rally hopes as U.S. reportedly clears Nvidia H200 sales | Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinp | llm:The Trump-Xi summit increases the chance of Trump mentioning either Japan or Kor | YES |
|
TRADED | May 14 07:48 |
| Market | Side | Entry | Cost | Signal | Headline | Opened | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No open positions | |||||||
| Market | Side | Entry | Exit | P&L | Signal | Closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-05-16? | NO | 0.145 | 0.000 | $-25.42 | llm:Headline indicates a weaker US stance on Taiwan defense, making a win for FK Dyn | May 16 16:28 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | NO | 0.852 | 0.764 | $-3.52 | llm:The headline says Trump and Xi concluded talks with no deals, meaning Boeing may | May 15 22:58 |
| Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? | YES | 0.215 | 0.100 | $-14.10 | llm:Trump says he will soon make decision about sanctions on Chinese companies buyin | May 15 22:58 |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 | NO | 0.525 | 0.475 | $-3.33 | llm:Headline mentions Trump and Xi talked extensively about Taiwan which could move | May 15 22:58 |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | YES | 0.198 | 0.165 | $-5.08 | llm:Headline mentions Eurovision, which increases the likelihood of any country winn | h2r=8h | May 15 16:22 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | NO | 0.915 | 0.970 | $0.47 | llm:The headline says Trump and Xi concluded talks with no deals, meaning Boeing may | May 15 16:11 |
| Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? | NO | 0.655 | 0.565 | $-4.37 | llm:The headline "Trump and Xi conclude 'very successful' talks but no deals confirm | May 15 15:35 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | NO | 0.785 | 0.835 | $0.56 | llm:The headline says Trump and Xi concluded talks with no deals, meaning Boeing may | May 15 15:24 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? | YES | 0.886 | 0.814 | $-2.99 | llm:The headline 'Trump Announces Boeing Jet Order From China' suggests increased ec | May 15 13:07 |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | YES | 0.355 | 0.240 | $-8.94 | llm:Bill Ackman building a Microsoft position increases the chance of Microsoft succ | May 15 11:28 |
| Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? | YES | 0.635 | 0.690 | $1.12 | llm:Trump talking about trade deals with China increases the chance of a Boeing purc | May 15 10:00 |
| Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | NO | 0.885 | 0.945 | $0.66 | llm:The headline mentions Kevin Warsh's confirmation, but it is about the Federal Re | May 15 09:28 |
| Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? | NO | 0.385 | 0.325 | $-4.82 | llm:The carbon pricing agreement doesn't directly imply anything about Israel's chan | May 15 09:28 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | YES | 0.400 | 0.839 | $25.86 | llm:The headline provides direct evidence that the Trump-Xi summit happened, increas | May 15 09:28 |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? | NO | 0.695 | 0.655 | $-2.41 | llm:Softbank's large gain driven by OpenAI suggests increased general economic optim | May 14 19:56 |
DB: paper_run_20260426_095536.db