BB Squeeze Tight

Signal: BB(25, 1.5σ, h=12) — round-4 highest mean Sharpe (1.86), A/B vs bb_squeeze

Open 0Closed 43Wins 22 / Losses 21Win rate 51%Realized P&L $187.99

(plus 68 bug-tagged off-universe trades worth $-496.15 hidden)

Closed (30 most recent — clean / bug-excluded)

market_title	side	entry_price	exit_price	pnl	exit_time
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.465	0.325	-16.752688172043015	2026-05-15T04:23:21.658890+00:00
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?	YES	0.445	1.0	59.11235955056179	2026-05-15T04:23:21.548826+00:00
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.31	0.09	-36.774193548387096	2026-05-15T04:23:21.386685+00:00
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.5800000000000001	0.968	30.77931034482758	2026-05-15T04:23:21.311368+00:00
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.765	0.936	8.952941176470581	2026-05-15T04:23:21.211637+00:00
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	YES	0.665	0.51	-13.421052631578952	2026-05-15T04:23:21.131418+00:00
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.47000000000000003	0.98	51.170212765957444	2026-05-15T04:23:21.036913+00:00
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	YES	0.43	0.313	-15.332558139534882	2026-05-15T04:23:20.916434+00:00
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026?	YES	0.25	0.215	-8.86	2026-05-15T04:23:20.813931+00:00
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.765	0.12	-43.31372549019608	2026-05-15T04:23:20.671690+00:00
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.28500000000000003	0.165	-22.631578947368425	2026-05-14T04:22:01.523292+00:00
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.235	0.175	-14.51063829787234	2026-05-14T03:36:52.158936+00:00
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.235	0.17	-15.553191489361701	2026-05-14T03:21:49.506114+00:00
Connecticut Sun vs. Portland Fire	YES	0.51	0.495	-3.441176470588239	2026-05-13T20:04:49.126135+00:00
Wild vs. Avalanche	YES	0.365	0.335	-6.027397260273972	2026-05-13T20:04:49.011410+00:00
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	YES	0.35650000000000004	0.3525	-2.549789621318382	2026-05-13T20:04:48.854432+00:00
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	YES	0.335	0.26	-12.970149253731343	2026-05-13T20:04:48.761059+00:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	YES	0.36000000000000004	0.325	-6.763888888888893	2026-05-13T20:04:48.681799+00:00
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	YES	0.49	0.345	-16.500000000000007	2026-05-13T20:04:48.536237+00:00
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	YES	0.48500000000000004	0.7	19.721649484536073	2026-05-13T20:04:48.414212+00:00
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?	YES	0.625	1.0	27.400000000000006	2026-05-13T20:04:48.245276+00:00
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	YES	0.395	0.32	-11.303797468354432	2026-05-13T20:04:48.010363+00:00
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?	YES	0.305	0.18	-22.081967213114755	2026-05-13T20:04:47.875229+00:00
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12?	YES	0.385	0.205	-24.909090909090914	2026-05-12T19:58:43.350047+00:00
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?	YES	0.5650000000000001	0.555	-2.867256637168147	2026-05-12T19:28:37.139790+00:00
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	YES	0.6950000000000001	0.425	-21.035971223021587	2026-05-12T18:43:19.454488+00:00
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?	YES	0.28750000000000003	0.187	-19.128695652173914	2026-05-12T18:43:19.288839+00:00
Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik	YES	0.46	0.64	17.17391304347825	2026-05-11T19:25:24.299323+00:00
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	YES	0.235	0.28	7.382978723404264	2026-05-11T10:22:18.260450+00:00
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	YES	0.47000000000000003	0.785	30.84042553191489	2026-05-11T10:22:18.137480+00:00

Scan log (30 most recent)

scanned_at	market_id	market_title	yes_price	bb_lower	bb_mean	bb_std	decision	reason
2026-05-15T07:08:24.681867+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-15T06:53:24.467905+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-15T06:08:23.884351+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T04:22:03.518252+00:00	0x9a72bb556617a07ac005dcd13e5fdc961318a0973ef7fde5ce590685feadcda0	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.745	0.764168214620466	0.7796000000000001	0.010287856919689357	open	bb_lower_touch
2026-05-14T04:22:03.488196+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585	0.5723060024019219	0.5798	0.004995998398718723	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:22:03.473942+00:00	0x95e0a41420c5f422b332a0b537afefdf45de8ea948b855f5899f30ffd1da340d	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.38	0.2604251948777472	0.33899999999999997	0.052383203414835176	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:55.064222+00:00	0xfc43f87324c85016f1ffae7fec70b1dd485323af46398f38943102404c4e839b	Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026?	0.23	0.2300501256289338	0.24	0.006633249580710797	open	bb_lower_touch
2026-05-14T03:36:55.032372+00:00	0x9def76550076528b77ee731423b5ec7f11fa631ffaf8181841ab51320ecac53b	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May?	0.7775	0.7766767972911999	0.77774	0.000708801805866769	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:55.011451+00:00	0xe8ce884fa32e568da10d1624933165be830bce50a3625531ccffe09ef20e780d	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	0.41	0.41156782837086786	0.42688000000000004	0.010208114419421453	open	bb_lower_touch
2026-05-14T03:36:54.988910+00:00	0xf3fdb3d677f12ea4d9e9dac9eed48d5ac6c522ddc2e3e9aa062819b0aae7f79a	Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.28				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T03:36:54.975305+00:00	0x9cede4a2937c7faf2f631ef56a963c554bca5fc1343460d1fd5898cc57e33bfd	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	0.82				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T03:36:54.960021+00:00	0x2ec4547d95ac1aa7a9ef1a75b53422f627cf072ac39413f0d5458182e04f4d2a	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May?	0.795	0.7865551674961171	0.7926000000000001	0.00402988833592198	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.912500+00:00	0x0cfac875e3fa84e292a97256b74432c236904d1a3e46fe8b489978122bdc663b	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	0.635				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T03:36:54.883542+00:00	0xe20409f221449d89b34c950c5bb6620d89c0c241d06e4e1218a5acc7f49ef196	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?	0.705	0.705	0.705		skip	std_too_small
2026-05-14T03:36:54.869773+00:00	0x73a62c311eb451ee57b497d7ca9dcc8bd6d83a0b65800b9a1b83c5892e374c80	Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.245				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T03:36:54.854119+00:00	0xc56c19008e4c35c8456a9e759e3a284bdc49a5ff14f62035ec67ed2616b7e5c5	Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?	0.615	0.6084770979062027	0.6122	0.0024819347291981735	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.840181+00:00	0x354280ff6e0c416fc5e43c011f18081b2badeab05da87efbc42104abed57720d	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	0.3855	0.26335925878625044	0.32542000000000004	0.04137382747583308	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.826390+00:00	0x76e08e9528154ddbc7397c51733462752088bbbb1cd062f4cb284f2c4a7c20c0	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	0.355	0.3497573593128807	0.354	0.0028284271247461927	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.802298+00:00	0xb81de4a6bb4824380460f92d7a6901e407e7c4558bac7451b0d26bc8873bfa54	Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.485				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T03:36:54.788576+00:00	0xc726713770f6ae46996d8a44fb536ae9b7b4246d3bbe7eda40743b59d2cc342b	Will Cadillac achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?	0.47	0.46028035875160883	0.46919999999999995	0.005946427498927396	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.774424+00:00	0x10f33df25b6b8214c0048e3dc9e0e08afbc05f18c05c8e06e151eb040f12adbe	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	0.715	0.6950712754469005	0.7064	0.007552483035399689	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.758380+00:00	0x56e3a277978cde35f4ddea3ddcf62eb0d4f2fb0b282fb9d227f0b4645281a0ab	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	0.29	0.23695326096022046	0.2956	0.03909782602651968	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.744065+00:00	0xe7963b4fb6cf046dc79ad1a044a9fa4a028c479ad13300559d3811ff1b5e761d	Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	0.264	0.26419627884786095	0.26444	0.00016248076809271934	skip	std_too_small
2026-05-14T03:36:54.729552+00:00	0xdace7a082bc8fdcf230e2a450cfe64f0e2f2595f69b0c95aee580cbc9a397411	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?	0.7115	0.7012954392800947	0.71908	0.011856373813270222	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.712964+00:00	0xe5fe0ceba5d61d1f737eac776b1784c3361cb467b9ff7af39bda44bd194ea8b5	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of May 11 2026?	0.785	0.5063935346329058	0.6456000000000001	0.09280431024472946	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.696462+00:00	0x354280ff6e0c416fc5e43c011f18081b2badeab05da87efbc42104abed57720d	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	0.386	0.2588442563779544	0.32768	0.045890495748030447	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.673020+00:00	0xd7fb33015f41ccf8ed4a4dae6a5e3a6b7b60b0bdf429d47355224d2370b7c162	Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	0.645	0.5437697864893971	0.6165999999999999	0.04855347567373525	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.658676+00:00	0x552a1017b5c8f574da1b269d0eb265701ce80becdb07bd0285b7370cc9f209c3	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	0.605	0.5763342448160065	0.5933999999999999	0.011377170122662324	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T03:36:54.641963+00:00	0x7f4378c2e8fb0a4673813e5a5d6f5a773765bab522186932a0465f326a05328d	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.45	0.4859055966176342	0.5404	0.03632960225491051	open	bb_lower_touch
2026-05-14T03:36:54.589551+00:00	0x814b6df2eb37083606cc0f6e10885eb19631e608e28df3c7d629e43e5e6580a1	Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?	0.245				skip	bb_history_too_short