← Mission Control

Fundamental Arb

Signal: Polymarket equity/crypto vs Alpaca SIP options-IV / realized-vol Black-Scholes fair value
Open 5Closed 58Wins 36 / Losses 22Win rate 62%Realized P&L $105.20

Open (5)

idmarket_idmarket_titleasset_typesymbolsidebet_sidestrike
630x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?cryptoBTC/USDNOtouch_above85000.0
370x0357f760e337c64f62a83f89f0bc99faf22778453188878330cc39a535eaf68aWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?stockSPYNOtouch_above7700.0
190x8ad67416f1aee0c26200848b8f663322d251946cdd552bd6c7a4ea262582ac73Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?stockSPYNOtouch_above6300.0
150x3c71361d4ba3647619c72661c30f9942d1fd1e9885dd982c280177a6884a773eWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?stockSPYNOtouch_above8000.0
110x4da3a5e2a18e682f7b6407ef1c853adf09de0a3e1a5637879827ac11792f5166Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?stockSPYNOtouch_above6000.0

Closed (30 most recent — clean / bug-excluded)

market_titlesideentry_priceexit_pricepnlexit_time
Will Solana reach $110 in May?NO0.7450.029512.8315436241610852026-05-18T14:25:51.261418+00:00
Will Solana reach $120 May 11-17?NO0.8218.6833130328867232026-05-18T06:37:57.724096+00:00
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?YES0.910.6155-17.8576923076923042026-05-15T14:14:58.120929+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15?NO0.8650.34-13.6127167630057852026-05-14T17:05:46.614007+00:00
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $220?YES0.90.865-3.90555555555555152026-05-14T08:59:46.062450+00:00
Will Solana reach $100 in May?NO0.3950.45516.6075949367088362026-05-13T13:59:50.407672+00:00
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17?YES0.450.22-27.0444444444444442026-05-13T13:59:49.978424+00:00
Will Solana reach $100 May 11-17?NO0.5850.216.0085470085470262026-05-13T12:42:21.619972+00:00
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $210?YES0.82500000000000010.891.86060606060605952026-05-13T00:09:05.648999+00:00
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 11 above $385?NO0.435000000000000050.76-23.9655172413793172026-05-12T20:18:17.473285+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?NO0.3650.49516.7945205479451972026-05-12T16:55:39.136485+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 13?YES0.320.45518.6718752026-05-12T16:55:38.397056+00:00
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on May 13?YES0.520.43-10.480769230769242026-05-12T15:09:04.390109+00:00
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $215?NO0.214999999999999940.71513.9534883720930482026-05-12T14:22:33.423035+00:00
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on May 13?YES0.520.80524.8557692307692262026-05-12T14:22:31.685065+00:00
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $200?NO0.070000000000000050.95-15.9999999999999932026-05-12T08:43:41.521064+00:00
Will Meta (META) finish week of May 11 above $620?YES0.160.197.18752026-05-12T08:28:18.678040+00:00
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of May 11 above $265?NO0.290000000000000040.5918.2758620689655232026-05-12T08:28:17.161584+00:00
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $205?NO0.114999999999999980.8225.6956521739130752026-05-12T08:28:17.057477+00:00
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of May 11 above $380?NO0.219999999999999950.67521.386363636363642026-05-12T08:12:53.258327+00:00
Will Solana reach $100 May 11-17?NO0.2650.53534.9811320754716852026-05-12T01:02:06.462929+00:00
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 11 above $210?NO0.195000000000000030.9-25.8717948717948862026-05-11T21:56:35.205151+00:00
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on May 12?YES0.67250.95918.875092936802982026-05-11T19:52:37.350804+00:00
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 11?YES0.871.05.32183908045976752026-05-11T19:06:00.002742+00:00
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on May 11?YES0.87650000000000011.04.9041642897889232026-05-11T19:05:59.724930+00:00
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 11-17?YES0.8850.99954.3395480225988692026-05-11T19:05:56.464896+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 12?YES0.210.2814.3333333333333432026-05-11T15:59:24.357348+00:00
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 15?YES0.5850.88523.128205128205142026-05-11T15:43:51.771017+00:00
Will Solana reach $100 May 4-10?NO0.785512.5171865054105642026-05-11T07:00:38.704928+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12?YES0.4450.59514.5168539325842692026-05-10T23:51:39.421104+00:00

Scan log (30 most recent)

scanned_atmarket_idmarket_titlesymbolbet_sidestrikeyes_pricep_modeledge
2026-05-18T13:40:36.700598+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1650.076609273757188790.08839072624281122
2026-05-18T13:25:29.583316+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1650.08929039632646821-0.0757096036735318
2026-05-18T13:10:24.390871+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1750.09751010521267217-0.07748989478732782
2026-05-18T12:55:19.292898+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1750.10216023145923317-0.07283976854076682
2026-05-18T12:40:13.784353+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1550.10673152224517213-0.04826847775482787
2026-05-18T12:25:07.193622+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1550.09887307701374289-0.05612692298625711
2026-05-18T12:10:01.780156+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1550.09646136992168804-0.05853863007831196
2026-05-18T11:54:55.134124+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1550.09006220193620222-0.06493779806379778
2026-05-18T11:39:46.194487+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1450.08213017798046376-0.06286982201953623
2026-05-18T11:24:40.801419+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1450.07163690087000449-0.0733630991299955
2026-05-18T11:09:35.642375+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1250.07013061204211811-0.05486938795788189
2026-05-18T10:54:30.295363+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.130.07284740650184532-0.057152593498154686
2026-05-18T10:39:25.063533+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.07283403182893464-0.06216596817106537
2026-05-18T10:24:20.055131+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.07003559446719847-0.06496440553280154
2026-05-18T10:09:14.973096+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.07335726067432918-0.061642739325670826
2026-05-18T09:54:09.516971+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.07578225318237997-0.05921774681762004
2026-05-18T09:39:04.075062+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.130.07910966091477131-0.05089033908522869
2026-05-18T09:23:59.029477+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.0765794954469903-0.058420504553009706
2026-05-18T09:08:53.434518+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.07733310565132509-0.05766689434867492
2026-05-18T08:53:47.995998+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.07877195804004344-0.056228041959956565
2026-05-18T08:38:42.623074+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.07662752820242816-0.05837247179757185
2026-05-18T08:23:37.710416+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.140.07879694064670695-0.061203059353293066
2026-05-18T08:08:32.536916+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.0844531571492976-0.050546842850702406
2026-05-18T07:53:27.582594+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.08133582979736276-0.05366417020263725
2026-05-18T07:38:22.626804+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1350.07991263830363576-0.055087361696364245
2026-05-18T07:23:17.384997+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1250.07415560880324713-0.05084439119675287
2026-05-18T07:08:12.514257+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1250.07801256099170314-0.046987439008296855
2026-05-18T06:53:07.326506+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1250.07656385465929005-0.048436145340709946
2026-05-18T06:38:02.403085+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1250.07248244077326374-0.05251755922673626
2026-05-18T06:22:57.376489+00:000x58078283e2356f9b9537b42e7479d7785b83bcd6f18002de8a2526c499eda837Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?BTC/USDtouch_above85000.00.1450.07415776223189115-0.07084223776810884