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Equity News

Signal: Alpaca SIP news + LLM → Polymarket equity markets
Open 2Closed 88Wins 35 / Losses 53Win rate 40%Realized P&L $-61.26
(plus 16 bug-tagged off-universe trades worth $-60.21 hidden)

Open (2)

idmarket_idmarket_titlesideentry_pricequantitycostentry_time
1060x652002aa13ba253abd033a6a7d06457fe2a08309c7c5324598d677624cdabec3Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?yes0.539546.3392029657089925.52026-05-17T16:19:09.278451+00:00
1050xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?no0.54545.87155963302751625.52026-05-17T16:19:09.276263+00:00

Closed (30 most recent — clean / bug-excluded)

market_titlesideentry_priceexit_pricepnlexit_time
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 17?no0.6650.70500000000000010.473684210526315042026-05-17T16:29:21.662995+00:00
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?no0.305000000000000050.32550.64672131147540672026-05-16T21:36:32.804050+00:00
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?no0.83950.8950.61971411554496922026-05-16T21:16:11.612852+00:00
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Prelims)yes0.415000000000000040.425-0.409638554216872562026-05-16T20:31:14.183944+00:00
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?yes0.560.44-6.252026-05-16T17:16:58.984148+00:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17?no0.8070.860.60904584882279522026-05-16T14:47:54.990163+00:00
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 16?no0.6140.6550.63599348534201992026-05-16T14:31:34.679063+00:00
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?yes0.81500000000000010.805-1.30061349693251672026-05-16T10:23:35.470789+00:00
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16?no0.4850.44499999999999995-3.02061855670103442026-05-16T09:49:01.599974+00:00
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons yes0.7650.22-18.4542483660130722026-05-15T23:37:35.066294+00:00
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?no0.355500000000000040.3195-3.48101265822785072026-05-15T21:58:31.296439+00:00
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?yes0.3050.28-3.00819672131147442026-05-15T21:33:52.435878+00:00
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5no0.5250.485-2.8666666666666672026-05-15T20:29:10.596520+00:00
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?no0.6750.7351.17777777777778072026-05-15T19:41:53.394080+00:00
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Scoreno0.415000000000000040.439999999999999950.47590361445782752026-05-15T19:10:56.012198+00:00
Will "In the Grey" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?yes0.56500000000000010.405-7.9380530973451332026-05-15T18:23:29.244527+00:00
Will "In the Grey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?no0.6550.565-4.3664122137404642026-05-15T18:09:04.527786+00:00
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?no0.188000000000000030.14849999999999997-6.1476063829787292026-05-15T17:40:00.283431+00:00
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?yes0.2150.115-12.3953488372093012026-05-15T17:27:31.673208+00:00
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?yes0.6250.670.76399999999999932026-05-15T15:38:18.266712+00:00
Paris: Katie Volynets vs Yulia Starodubtsevayes0.295000000000000040.72534.7118644067796542026-05-15T11:09:37.239686+00:00
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?yes0.130.140.88461538461538322026-05-15T10:51:52.051279+00:00
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?yes0.6650.62-2.65789473684210982026-05-15T10:43:41.219470+00:00
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15?yes0.1350.1756.2592592592592562026-05-15T10:16:53.809018+00:00
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 15?no0.910.84-2.88461538461539042026-05-15T10:12:48.122707+00:00
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?yes0.355000000000000040.3951.76056338028168822026-05-15T10:12:47.938930+00:00
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?yes0.7650.63-5.323529411764712026-05-15T08:59:03.201958+00:00
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?no0.7750.8250.58064516129032032026-05-15T08:18:25.561965+00:00
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?no0.175000000000000020.15500000000000003-3.80000000000000432026-05-15T06:08:24.429543+00:00
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?no0.380.32999999999999996-4.2236842105263222026-05-15T00:53:15.599074+00:00