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Precipitation Arb

Signal: Polymarket monthly precipitation vs OpenMeteo Archive (past month deterministic) + climatology forecast
Open 15Closed 0Wins 0 / Losses 0Win rate 0%Realized P&L $0.00

Open (15)

idmarket_idmarket_titlecitymonthyearsidebet_side
150x95f1ac7dc9ceb7c682529ad7942bdb7efd2b545a754338e99cb0fa323036eba0Will London have between 20-25mm of precipitation in May?london52026NObetween
140x1f377b1648c0dada9059f5beedb119cf1455c1c94c81947f8c2ff7ac6c3f0cc8Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May?london52026NObetween
130xe3e0191062e5f8930c2f23f61dd1216139084767799c257a6f15b4426414b41dWill London have between 10-15mm of precipitation in May?london52026NObetween
120x2102900cc23093c1e4b808a2a06839a0839702fcab9dc892b0ba8b7f905cc874Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May?london52026NObetween
110x3ff3d49ab287815f7677ab20f0324381de22517bd07a80eb524dce53ff433130Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May?london52026NObelow
100xab6dd61c06b6d65fb4adcc6dcf9aad64ceb4bf8e694dbb78fd9e0f6128277403Will Seattle have more than 3 inches of precipitation in May?seattle52026NOabove
90x36b5ebcf6c6257695419e8cc3ee3328f0a1000b57870d471c7a650a3cf1b65ebWill Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in May?seattle52026NObetween
80xb7e8fe0b38f79ce74de2c119fde0a484cb70cfb34654e6aa8dec66ad11d4c6bfWill Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in May?seattle52026NObetween
70x0210504acec9d16133a4bd02831872a40df36e7ef4b8dc40f7bc90416cbacca4Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in May?seattle52026NObetween
60x4e65897edb647b5187f1ad5e948d8551f6440ddb3e068c7ca1671cf4b018b2e5Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in May?seattle52026NObelow
50x74473fdfbd2e9e752c92e58f5c478b38f68c817bb4e7981fc3161839ae654f72Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_city52026NOabove
40xb9d070cf25c7c888913cff0c862c0ad77af3f37a4c0e3cd24d22256541a2a016Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_city52026NObetween
30x35f91847f18be8874898e35467b58067ee753ab072665e828a2df190699ad9d4Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_city52026NObetween
20x404e1d11ae235ba626df25dced429b848d8cb741fa72b9635cd9c84e66973d00Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_city52026NObetween
10x2909f77a47466405424669bb337223cd3e7c62acd2cbbc2c2ca9a977e7f9f51bWill NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_city52026YESbetween

Scan log (30 most recent)

scanned_atmarket_idmarket_titlecitybet_sideyes_pricep_modeledgesource_label
2026-05-05T16:01:15.894354+00:000x95f1ac7dc9ceb7c682529ad7942bdb7efd2b545a754338e99cb0fa323036eba0Will London have between 20-25mm of precipitation in May?londonbetween0.2253.491155700933217e-110.22499999996508846partial+forecast:to_date=9.8mm forecast=95.3mm climo_resid=19.4mm σ=15.3
2026-05-05T16:01:13.395682+00:000x1f377b1648c0dada9059f5beedb119cf1455c1c94c81947f8c2ff7ac6c3f0cc8Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May?londonbetween0.183.8158423122470295e-120.17999999999618416partial+forecast:to_date=9.8mm forecast=95.3mm climo_resid=19.4mm σ=15.3
2026-05-05T16:01:10.992116+00:000xe3e0191062e5f8930c2f23f61dd1216139084767799c257a6f15b4426414b41dWill London have between 10-15mm of precipitation in May?londonbetween0.2053.7511453249951427e-130.20499999999962487partial+forecast:to_date=9.8mm forecast=95.3mm climo_resid=19.4mm σ=15.3
2026-05-05T16:01:08.432513+00:000x2102900cc23093c1e4b808a2a06839a0839702fcab9dc892b0ba8b7f905cc874Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May?londonbetween0.1663.3165215346736366e-140.16599999999996684partial+forecast:to_date=9.8mm forecast=95.3mm climo_resid=19.4mm σ=15.3
2026-05-05T16:01:04.823408+00:000x3ff3d49ab287815f7677ab20f0324381de22517bd07a80eb524dce53ff433130Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May?londonbelow0.20352.838647543984694e-150.20349999999999716partial+forecast:to_date=9.8mm forecast=95.3mm climo_resid=19.4mm σ=15.3
2026-05-05T16:01:01.864498+00:000xab6dd61c06b6d65fb4adcc6dcf9aad64ceb4bf8e694dbb78fd9e0f6128277403Will Seattle have more than 3 inches of precipitation in May?seattleabove0.4050.0202868172463315230.3847131827536685partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7
2026-05-05T16:00:59.233716+00:000x36b5ebcf6c6257695419e8cc3ee3328f0a1000b57870d471c7a650a3cf1b65ebWill Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in May?seattlebetween0.3850.059940587338055850.32505941266194416partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7
2026-05-05T16:00:56.357831+00:000xb7e8fe0b38f79ce74de2c119fde0a484cb70cfb34654e6aa8dec66ad11d4c6bfWill Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in May?seattlebetween0.420.143631201135482560.27636879886451743partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7
2026-05-05T16:00:51.863074+00:000x19f982e07a64f4cc8da8208e268cf27e6a05b0d91b33a661207523376ba97e3cWill Seattle have between 1.5 and 2 inches of precipitation in May?seattlebetween0.2550.23040002830702022-0.024599971692979783partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7
2026-05-05T16:00:49.064160+00:000x317e13d28baae5a4e14229fbb147f04edcb190465b838c70962005cc296053b7Will Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in May?seattlebetween0.2450.247480250759505420.00248025075950542partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7
2026-05-05T16:00:46.461989+00:000x0210504acec9d16133a4bd02831872a40df36e7ef4b8dc40f7bc90416cbacca4Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in May?seattlebetween0.2550.17800864107325570.0769913589267443partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7
2026-05-05T16:00:43.613517+00:000x4e65897edb647b5187f1ad5e948d8551f6440ddb3e068c7ca1671cf4b018b2e5Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in May?seattlebelow0.30.120252474140348730.17974752585965126partial+forecast:to_date=0.1mm forecast=9.6mm climo_resid=26.1mm σ=19.7
2026-05-05T16:00:40.512015+00:000x74473fdfbd2e9e752c92e58f5c478b38f68c817bb4e7981fc3161839ae654f72Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_cityabove0.265.290971295790481e-050.2599470902870421partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7
2026-05-05T16:00:37.213733+00:000xb9d070cf25c7c888913cff0c862c0ad77af3f37a4c0e3cd24d22256541a2a016Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_citybetween0.2250.00246626452043841040.2225337354795616partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7
2026-05-05T16:00:32.884095+00:000x35f91847f18be8874898e35467b58067ee753ab072665e828a2df190699ad9d4Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_citybetween0.4150.039091115024239340.37590888497576064partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7
2026-05-05T16:00:25.062542+00:000x404e1d11ae235ba626df25dced429b848d8cb741fa72b9635cd9c84e66973d00Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_citybetween0.3350.21300903796566140.12199096203433862partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7
2026-05-05T16:00:20.556033+00:000x2909f77a47466405424669bb337223cd3e7c62acd2cbbc2c2ca9a977e7f9f51bWill NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_citybetween0.2450.40530271029996080.1603027102999608partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7
2026-05-05T16:00:16.456596+00:000x329c2eb2cd491487fa5ca8f5b6dbd5e125f73a825535ce55ff00a17699aa8d5cWill NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in May?new_york_citybelow0.3450.34007796247674216-0.004922037523257816partial+forecast:to_date=2.0mm forecast=26.1mm climo_resid=32.5mm σ=23.7
2026-05-05T16:00:09.680672+00:000x67533932f32371a17426ab9f1e0d5820535546b6705a4f4cf25090b51ee4cbe1Will London have between 40-50mm of precipitation in April?londonbetween0.0165-0.0165past_month:7.5mm
2026-05-05T16:00:09.670690+00:000x212128f1da71fa9d86a10fb654a67b729b48ef96f1ab34af1fa1438199811c32Will London have between 20-30mm of precipitation in April?londonbetween0.013-0.013past_month:7.5mm
2026-05-05T16:00:09.654513+00:000x65034eb62e5812098462aa0452ae0fb54db99b55d1763ae2d64317af8aae5c6bWill London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April?londonbelow0.97051.00.02949999999999997past_month:7.5mm