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Smart Dip

Signal: ATR-dip (1.5×ATR(14) from 48h max) AND elite-wallet BUY YES in last 4h — premium-conviction subset of dip_buyer_atr

Open 0Closed 14Wins 6 / Losses 8Win rate 43%Realized P&L $-56.67

(plus 78 bug-tagged off-universe trades worth $-314.63 hidden)

Closed (14 most recent — clean / bug-excluded)

market_title	side	entry_price	exit_price	pnl	exit_time
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	YES	0.85	0.805	-4.594117647058816	2026-05-14T19:57:49.855842+00:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	YES	0.0745	0.0415	-23.704697986577184	2026-05-14T19:57:47.418665+00:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	YES	0.0745	0.0545	-15.15436241610739	2026-05-13T20:41:56.708387+00:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	YES	0.0745	0.0545	-15.15436241610739	2026-05-13T20:26:33.663310+00:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	YES	0.0745	0.0545	-15.15436241610739	2026-05-13T20:10:59.434194+00:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	YES	0.076	0.0545	-15.861842105263158	2026-05-13T19:55:15.557156+00:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	YES	0.0775	0.0545	-16.541935483870972	2026-05-13T19:39:58.882842+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?	YES	0.725	0.955	13.544827586206893	2026-05-13T09:10:52.926915+00:00
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	YES	0.755	0.425	-23.417218543046356	2026-05-12T18:43:30.065574+00:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	YES	0.635	0.7	3.0157480314960665	2026-05-12T06:59:20.250103+00:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	YES	0.76	0.9985	13.376973684210533	2026-05-11T03:18:52.372598+00:00
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	YES	0.115	0.185	27.82608695652172	2026-05-10T15:05:46.479897+00:00
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	YES	0.7424999999999999	0.765	0.5000000000000071	2026-05-07T02:21:59.639389+00:00
Will Solana reach $100 in May?	YES	0.2925	0.385	14.65384615384616	2026-05-06T10:41:03.196003+00:00

Scan log (30 most recent)

scanned_at	market_id	market_title	yes_price	rolling_max	drop_pct	decision	reason
2026-05-17T14:42:02.153537+00:00	0x5d01d7c91999ac53ec34f1054aa1130b100c54378a50703563af9b5e58e2d9ad	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.0505	0.0985	0.4873096446700507	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T11:56:57.532069+00:00	0x6d5097436385c29f68880f20f57a834460938688e16a13398208ec45f107bd46	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	0.123	0.124	0.008064516129032265	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T11:41:56.972999+00:00	0x6d5097436385c29f68880f20f57a834460938688e16a13398208ec45f107bd46	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	0.123	0.124	0.008064516129032265	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T11:26:56.575387+00:00	0x6d5097436385c29f68880f20f57a834460938688e16a13398208ec45f107bd46	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	0.1235	0.124	0.004032258064516132	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0004)
2026-05-17T11:11:56.265545+00:00	0x6d5097436385c29f68880f20f57a834460938688e16a13398208ec45f107bd46	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	0.1235	0.124	0.004032258064516132	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0005)
2026-05-17T10:56:56.000584+00:00	0x7a3c87d49fd8d16969984707f8fe9d927a26f358c9c0dc4c4ab9a5c3b6d7c655	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.1655	0.206	0.19660194174757273	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T10:56:55.804355+00:00	0x6d5097436385c29f68880f20f57a834460938688e16a13398208ec45f107bd46	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	0.1235	0.124	0.004032258064516132	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0005)
2026-05-17T10:41:55.395953+00:00	0x7a3c87d49fd8d16969984707f8fe9d927a26f358c9c0dc4c4ab9a5c3b6d7c655	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.18	0.206	0.12621359223300968	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0184)
2026-05-17T10:41:55.373928+00:00	0x6d5097436385c29f68880f20f57a834460938688e16a13398208ec45f107bd46	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	0.1235	0.124	0.004032258064516132	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0005)
2026-05-17T10:26:54.690139+00:00	0x7a3c87d49fd8d16969984707f8fe9d927a26f358c9c0dc4c4ab9a5c3b6d7c655	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.1415	0.206	0.3131067961165049	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T10:26:54.594609+00:00	0x6d5097436385c29f68880f20f57a834460938688e16a13398208ec45f107bd46	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	0.123	0.124	0.008064516129032265	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T10:11:54.116578+00:00	0xea6aa008508129edb1ab7f824adbebac52814ef22355d1c03cf0658cba8c382f	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.3365	0.3955	0.14917825537294563	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T10:11:53.997212+00:00	0x7a3c87d49fd8d16969984707f8fe9d927a26f358c9c0dc4c4ab9a5c3b6d7c655	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.1635	0.206	0.20631067961165042	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T10:11:53.829075+00:00	0x6d5097436385c29f68880f20f57a834460938688e16a13398208ec45f107bd46	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	0.1235	0.124	0.004032258064516132	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0005)
2026-05-17T09:56:53.575018+00:00	0xf2c0bdca906b9a4e313436db96fb7b18c57101eeaf9c63c8654a409492064745	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.367	0.4005	0.08364544319600506	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0350)
2026-05-17T09:56:53.555542+00:00	0xea6aa008508129edb1ab7f824adbebac52814ef22355d1c03cf0658cba8c382f	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.3295	0.3955	0.16687737041719342	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T09:56:53.457781+00:00	0x7a3c87d49fd8d16969984707f8fe9d927a26f358c9c0dc4c4ab9a5c3b6d7c655	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.1635	0.206	0.20631067961165042	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T09:56:53.354147+00:00	0x6d5097436385c29f68880f20f57a834460938688e16a13398208ec45f107bd46	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	0.1235	0.124	0.004032258064516132	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0006)
2026-05-17T09:41:53.013195+00:00	0xf2c0bdca906b9a4e313436db96fb7b18c57101eeaf9c63c8654a409492064745	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.3745	0.4005	0.06491885143570542	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0345)
2026-05-17T09:41:52.994825+00:00	0xea6aa008508129edb1ab7f824adbebac52814ef22355d1c03cf0658cba8c382f	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.3295	0.3955	0.16687737041719342	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T09:41:52.884909+00:00	0x7a3c87d49fd8d16969984707f8fe9d927a26f358c9c0dc4c4ab9a5c3b6d7c655	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.1645	0.206	0.20145631067961156	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T09:41:52.773016+00:00	0x6d5097436385c29f68880f20f57a834460938688e16a13398208ec45f107bd46	Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	0.1235	0.124	0.004032258064516132	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0006)
2026-05-17T09:26:51.951629+00:00	0xf2c0bdca906b9a4e313436db96fb7b18c57101eeaf9c63c8654a409492064745	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.3775	0.4005	0.05742821473158557	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0343)
2026-05-17T09:26:51.416498+00:00	0xea6aa008508129edb1ab7f824adbebac52814ef22355d1c03cf0658cba8c382f	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.319	0.3955	0.19342604298356514	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T09:11:49.646642+00:00	0xf2c0bdca906b9a4e313436db96fb7b18c57101eeaf9c63c8654a409492064745	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.3375	0.4005	0.15730337078651685	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T09:11:49.553507+00:00	0xea6aa008508129edb1ab7f824adbebac52814ef22355d1c03cf0658cba8c382f	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.367	0.3955	0.07206068268015177	skip	drop_below_1.5xatr(0.0265)
2026-05-17T09:11:49.535129+00:00	0x7a3c87d49fd8d16969984707f8fe9d927a26f358c9c0dc4c4ab9a5c3b6d7c655	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.139	0.1995		skip	atr_history_too_short
2026-05-17T09:11:49.516953+00:00	0x5d01d7c91999ac53ec34f1054aa1130b100c54378a50703563af9b5e58e2d9ad	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.0705	0.0985	0.284263959390863	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T08:56:49.135085+00:00	0xf2c0bdca906b9a4e313436db96fb7b18c57101eeaf9c63c8654a409492064745	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.3405	0.4005	0.14981273408239698	skip	no_elite_confirmation
2026-05-17T08:56:49.046670+00:00	0x7a3c87d49fd8d16969984707f8fe9d927a26f358c9c0dc4c4ab9a5c3b6d7c655	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	0.1365	0.1995		skip	atr_history_too_short