← Mission Control

Option Flow

Signal: Alpaca OPRA unusual call/put flow + LLM → Polymarket equity
Open 4Closed 107Wins 52 / Losses 55Win rate 49%Realized P&L $-94.94
(plus 16 bug-tagged off-universe trades worth $-82.68 hidden)

Open (4)

idmarket_idmarket_titlesideentry_pricequantitycostentry_time
1270x4f90bb76e46ebff15642ec59e81b7b5d852840e1998fa5022036e63a0de0b8f5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19?yes0.856529.1885580852305925.52026-05-17T17:03:03.720697+00:00
1240x4fd7ecd43f2181f5aa40d29ce9c255c09ac4dbf02bd86488f72f87fcbae784d0Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?yes0.830000000000000130.1204819277108425.52026-05-17T16:22:16.205919+00:00
1230x857d1d2c0ad739e3ff0dc62ffcb418474c0967880bf3983fe31251c4186e6e28Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffsyes0.575000000000000143.4782608695652125.52026-05-17T15:00:47.804712+00:00
1160x15c020bea3e3af7cc64276b4340cb5c598510f993511d8b87b345e1643ed6617Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?yes0.896527.88622420524261325.52026-05-16T07:36:39.153257+00:00

Closed (30 most recent — clean / bug-excluded)

market_titlesideentry_priceexit_pricepnlexit_time
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?yes0.69050.73550.59666908037653242026-05-17T17:13:14.021196+00:00
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?yes0.2150.16-7.2674418604651162026-05-17T16:52:48.726243+00:00
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 17?yes0.40.37-2.8375000000000022026-05-17T15:31:19.341326+00:00
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?yes0.6650.8957.4736842105263152026-05-17T14:09:44.494747+00:00
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?no0.69850.6025-4.3672154617036482026-05-17T14:09:44.305080+00:00
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5yes0.82500000000000010.195-19.709090909090912026-05-16T14:03:56.005719+00:00
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5yes0.6050.415-8.6942148760330582026-05-16T13:02:51.350667+00:00
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?yes0.3650.345-2.34246575342465852026-05-16T11:51:09.493451+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?yes0.2150.155-7.8372093023255792026-05-16T10:19:34.322225+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20?yes0.8850.76-4.46045197740113152026-05-16T09:28:32.923058+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16?yes0.8020.7805-1.65679551122195082026-05-16T08:07:08.814840+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18?yes0.7750.655-4.7935483870967742026-05-16T06:55:54.990831+00:00
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?yes0.5950.565-2.23529411764706152026-05-16T06:45:44.048481+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17?yes0.86350.7915-3.04284887087435152026-05-16T06:35:33.478440+00:00
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16?yes0.9080.913-0.86508810572687272026-05-16T06:15:10.328936+00:00
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17?yes0.7750.8250.58064516129032032026-05-16T03:32:00.197681+00:00
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons yes0.7650.22-18.4542483660130722026-05-15T23:37:00.415491+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?yes0.224999999999999980.185-5.3555555555555542026-05-15T22:05:05.349768+00:00
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)yes0.5350.475-3.74766355140187462026-05-15T21:03:39.313338+00:00
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?yes0.8350.90.90718562874251422026-05-15T21:03:39.089806+00:00
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?no0.8550.9150.71929824561403422026-05-15T17:06:34.491356+00:00
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?no0.239500000000000020.18700000000000006-6.3705636743214992026-05-15T16:46:07.672177+00:00
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 15?yes0.62250.4685-7.06104417670682952026-05-15T15:52:34.636415+00:00
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?yes0.7450.8010.84161073825503512026-05-15T15:32:05.629604+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20?yes0.8550.72-4.8684210526315822026-05-15T13:39:09.600608+00:00
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?no0.81500000000000010.74-3.25460122699386642026-05-15T10:23:44.444354+00:00
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?yes0.46550.49450.52631578947368142026-05-15T04:15:37.665349+00:00
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 15?yes0.5250.560.63333333333333642026-05-15T03:03:58.371003+00:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?yes0.82500000000000010.745-3.37575757575757862026-05-15T02:12:52.413522+00:00
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?no0.453000000000000070.39049999999999996-4.380242825607072026-05-14T22:48:08.679063+00:00