BB Squeeze

Signal: BB(20, 2σ) lower-band touch — combinator #1: median +10.2% Sharpe 1.24 across 98 markets

Open 0Closed 43Wins 18 / Losses 25Win rate 42%Realized P&L $21.40

(plus 14 bug-tagged off-universe trades worth $-293.51 hidden)

Closed (30 most recent — clean / bug-excluded)

market_title	side	entry_price	exit_price	pnl	exit_time
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?	YES	0.7365	0.723	-2.8981670061099862	2026-05-15T05:46:36.845124+00:00
Will Cadillac achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?	YES	0.455	0.51	3.92307692307692	2026-05-15T05:46:36.766039+00:00
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	YES	0.65	0.495	-13.684615384615391	2026-05-15T05:46:36.622965+00:00
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	YES	0.375	0.375	-2.0	2026-05-14T19:57:51.011028+00:00
Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026?	YES	0.26	0.195	-14.25	2026-05-14T19:57:50.768146+00:00
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?	YES	0.45	0.908	47.87111111111112	2026-05-14T19:57:50.479016+00:00
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.22	0.165	-14.25	2026-05-14T19:57:49.833662+00:00
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.67	0.365	-24.305970149253728	2026-05-14T19:57:48.629538+00:00
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.595	0.345	-22.588235294117652	2026-05-14T19:57:45.829331+00:00
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.55	0.37	-18.03636363636364	2026-05-14T19:56:10.200643+00:00
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.755	0.575	-13.682119205298015	2026-05-14T05:40:14.267224+00:00
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.65	0.52	-11.799999999999997	2026-05-14T05:40:14.081117+00:00
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.68	0.55	-11.367647058823536	2026-05-14T05:25:12.092069+00:00
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.5800000000000001	0.45	-12.982758620689658	2026-05-14T05:25:11.967028+00:00
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.665	0.64	-3.8421052631578974	2026-05-14T04:40:03.261789+00:00
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.28	0.165	-22.125000000000004	2026-05-14T04:25:00.295715+00:00
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.4	0.54	15.150000000000006	2026-05-14T03:09:45.613164+00:00
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.465	0.335	-15.698924731182792	2026-05-14T02:39:35.725017+00:00
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	YES	0.505	0.515	-1.0297029702970235	2026-05-14T02:09:29.251904+00:00
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.8	0.785	-2.918750000000003	2026-05-14T01:54:26.279824+00:00
Nothing Ever Happens: May	YES	0.8	0.825	-0.46875	2026-05-14T01:39:23.367192+00:00
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	YES	0.375	0.3	-11.799999999999997	2026-05-14T01:24:19.511161+00:00
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	YES	0.535	0.73	15.859813084112147	2026-05-14T01:09:16.742265+00:00
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.7050000000000001	0.66	-5.127659574468083	2026-05-14T00:54:14.261237+00:00
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14?	YES	0.35750000000000004	0.466	12.87132867132867	2026-05-14T00:24:07.260112+00:00
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.325	0.435	14.584615384615375	2026-05-13T22:53:40.962354+00:00
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	YES	0.405	0.305	-14.098765432098773	2026-05-13T22:08:17.617904+00:00
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	YES	0.502	0.3835	-13.566733067729082	2026-05-13T21:53:15.099927+00:00
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	YES	0.7365	0.5665	-13.310251188051595	2026-05-13T18:51:58.184475+00:00
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	YES	0.445	0.58	12.865168539325829	2026-05-13T17:36:31.383474+00:00

Scan log (30 most recent)

scanned_at	market_id	market_title	yes_price	bb_lower	bb_mean	bb_std	decision	reason
2026-05-15T07:01:38.094450+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-15T06:46:37.846460+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-15T06:16:37.425576+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T05:40:16.635586+00:00	0xa7cd6e973edbb5e397698fc3e8c1cb1981ba302200c33024d8a53f4cdc299f93	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.53	0.5951437969975663	0.682	0.04342810150121691	open	bb_lower_touch
2026-05-14T05:40:16.612703+00:00	0x2933289bd13c6731f0bfdcb63c6ed88a72dbd6c233732eb05a506d5b620df4c8	Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)	0.45	0.4469174243050442	0.45150000000000007	0.002291287847477922	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T05:40:16.585454+00:00	0x9a72bb556617a07ac005dcd13e5fdc961318a0973ef7fde5ce590685feadcda0	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.575	0.6327375799334378	0.751	0.059131210033281076	open	bb_lower_touch
2026-05-14T05:40:16.557870+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585	0.5763585715714572	0.5835	0.0035707142142714283	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T05:40:16.543460+00:00	0x95e0a41420c5f422b332a0b537afefdf45de8ea948b855f5899f30ffd1da340d	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.33	0.26541330365436916	0.36350000000000005	0.04904334817281545	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T05:25:13.931546+00:00	0xa7cd6e973edbb5e397698fc3e8c1cb1981ba302200c33024d8a53f4cdc299f93	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.63	0.635699583700029	0.69275	0.0285252081499855	open	bb_lower_touch
2026-05-14T05:25:13.909693+00:00	0x2933289bd13c6731f0bfdcb63c6ed88a72dbd6c233732eb05a506d5b620df4c8	Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)	0.45	0.4469803039929153	0.45175	0.0023848480035423662	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T05:25:13.887354+00:00	0xaa145cf5714455f546afe53037b8712df749ba96c04820c2d41f37f877f29697	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.65	0.6673194734327799	0.7505	0.04159026328361005	open	bb_lower_touch
2026-05-14T05:25:13.865766+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585	0.575	0.583	0.0040000000000000036	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T05:25:13.843604+00:00	0x95e0a41420c5f422b332a0b537afefdf45de8ea948b855f5899f30ffd1da340d	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.39	0.2618769458470053	0.36225	0.05018652707649734	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:40:05.229319+00:00	0x9a72bb556617a07ac005dcd13e5fdc961318a0973ef7fde5ce590685feadcda0	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.735	0.7371906690020914	0.77725	0.02002966549895429	open	bb_lower_touch
2026-05-14T04:40:05.207597+00:00	0xaa145cf5714455f546afe53037b8712df749ba96c04820c2d41f37f877f29697	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.71	0.7050915315286237	0.7665	0.03070423423568811	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:40:05.193305+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585	0.5719606079858305	0.5814999999999999	0.0047696960070847325	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:40:05.165702+00:00	0x95e0a41420c5f422b332a0b537afefdf45de8ea948b855f5899f30ffd1da340d	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.37	0.23963907618734678	0.34675	0.05355546190632661	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:25:02.701323+00:00	0xe517d4a74e0d4616a2dd34d94a12c64ce9711401a3632b69ccefdefcffaa459b	Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.2	0.20158942852609427	0.22949999999999998	0.01395528573695286	open	bb_lower_touch
2026-05-14T04:25:02.680094+00:00	0x16c89fc956afb17e5816f72d0f3e26da44ae7a68b02258aa7e5fe37c29f152ca	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	0.525	0.4896316004612693	0.50975	0.010059199769365363	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:25:02.652049+00:00	0x400574206484a09add5e10bc5a855f2f84c3c8f90329e7a098930d73c29a1601	Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week?	0.415				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T04:25:02.610893+00:00	0x1c60f9adb1d786b6fe78d63fd9f82dbb293fa06241532fb5ba43f8d8411cde1e	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	0.635				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T04:25:02.585023+00:00	0x85f3e001ffe2a24f985b939460d0cc22041d47107ed8c681f75abb6a5bd1d1d7	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	0.255				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T04:25:02.566708+00:00	0xd404dc2c519e187f78b3d14a43cb7a446c18de34c18721198ec23a0b9cfc9453	Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of May 23?	0.495				skip	bb_history_too_short
2026-05-14T04:25:02.548675+00:00	0xa79566d0e447bc061727e3479970fad245641c39b4cac56e360bfa4cca318cc1	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in May?	0.735	0.7285100040032032	0.741	0.006244997998398403	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:25:02.534620+00:00	0x91b049c8e2e22916b3bc51e3a369b664bc959a719013753b09ec3c49e199105c	Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	0.395	0.395	0.395		skip	std_too_small
2026-05-14T04:25:02.509087+00:00	0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	0.815	0.8149999999999998	0.8149999999999998		skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:25:02.494669+00:00	0x2933289bd13c6731f0bfdcb63c6ed88a72dbd6c233732eb05a506d5b620df4c8	Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)	0.45	0.4475	0.4525	0.0025000000000000022	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:25:02.464059+00:00	0x9a72bb556617a07ac005dcd13e5fdc961318a0973ef7fde5ce590685feadcda0	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.745	0.7444429037140838	0.7795	0.017528548142958095	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:25:02.445633+00:00	0xaa145cf5714455f546afe53037b8712df749ba96c04820c2d41f37f877f29697	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	0.735	0.7126505076163931	0.77175	0.029549746191803426	skip	not_below_bb_lower
2026-05-14T04:25:02.430180+00:00	0x6e9f90a6f471b52d03499a81586ca478519474eb152f1327c8c767f020d62529	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	0.585	0.5712020410288673	0.581	0.004898979485566361	skip	not_below_bb_lower